ChainLinks & Terranomics are proud to present the following reports:

2012 National Retail Forecast

Black Friday retail sales sent analysts into a state of euphoria.  Numerous records were set, driven by retailers opening earlier than ever before and reinforcing our forecast that within the next two years, Black Thursday will replace Black Friday.  Shopper spent an average of $398.62 this year—compared to $365.34 one year ago.  This breaks down to sales topping $52.4 billion.  CNNMoney puts the increase over last year’s sales performance at a whopping 16%.  Over 86 million Americans shopped on Black Friday alone.  ShopperTrac estimates that single day sales increased nearly 7% with a record $11.4 billion spent on this one day alone.  Retail foot traffic increased by 5.1%.  13% of shoppers began shopping or were in line before midnight on Black Friday.  All indications are that retail sales for this holiday season will be up substantially.  Last year, we entered the holiday shopping season with consumer confidence levels lower than this year’s.  The National Retail Federation (NRF) and International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) both predicted sales growth of between 2.5% and 3.0%.  Instead, we saw growth in the range of 5.0% to 6.0%.  This spurred a round of retailer expansion that lasted through August of this year.

Heading into the holiday season for 2011, all signs indicate that we may replicate that performance.  Yet, our retail contacts tell us not to expect the same bounce in demand that we saw last year.  Looking ahead, the new Terranomics/ChainLinks 2012 Forecast report sees similar levels of demand in place for 2012, but demand continuing to be eaten away by retail failures from mid-priced and mid-sized chains.  Will we see vacancy fall in 2012?

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Fall 2011 U.S. National Retail Investment Report

This semi-annual report provides the most detailed analysis and comprehensive coverage of recent deal activity available in the marketplace.  We cover investment trends for retail properties in over 50 major U.S. metropolitan markets.  We present detailed historical pricing and cap rate trends for shopping centers of all types, as well as neighborhood and community centers and strip centers across numerous geographic regions.  We also cover historic trends for pricing and cap rates for drug stores, fast food properties and big box projects of all sizes, ranging from junior boxes as small as 20,000 square feet in size to mega-boxes of 80,000 square feet or more.  We also provide detailed transaction data for all of these property types across the entire country.

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Summer 2011 U.S. National Retail Report

This report covers vacancy, absorption, construction and rental rate trends for the shopping center markets in over 40 major U.S. metropolitan regions. We also track investment trends across the country for multiple product types. We track retailer demand from the local to national levels. We also track the big picture trends that impact the retail industry in general. Our goal is nothing less than to create the industry gold standard for retail commercial real estate research reporting and to that end, we will strive to give you the most in-depth level of analysis and forecasting available in the marketplace.

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